SAIC MOTOR(600104) 东吴证券·2024-12-15 04:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SAIC Motor Corporation Limited (600104) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the joint venture sector is under pressure while the independent brands are still gaining momentum. The market share and profitability of state-owned enterprises are declining rapidly amid the new energy transition [2][45] - The management changes and ongoing reforms are expected to accelerate the company's transformation, with significant support from the Shanghai government [3][70] - The report anticipates a gradual bottoming out of the joint venture sector and an acceleration of group reforms, leading to improved profitability forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [4] Summary by Sections 1. Review: Joint Ventures Under Pressure, Independents Gaining Strength - The market share of state-owned enterprises has dropped significantly, with a cumulative sales volume of 12.46 million vehicles in the first ten months of 2024, representing a market share of 59%, down from a peak of 86% [45] - The independent brands are experiencing a rise in penetration rates, while joint ventures are facing notable declines in sales and profitability [48][53] 2. Outlook: Management Changes and Ongoing Reforms - Management changes have been extensive, with over ten senior executives replaced, and the Shanghai government is firmly supporting the company's transformation [3][66] - The joint venture sector is undergoing asset restructuring and reverse cooperation, with plans to upgrade production facilities and reduce unprofitable models [74][78] 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report lowers the 2024 net profit forecast to 8.4 billion yuan (previously 10 billion yuan) but raises the 2025 and 2026 forecasts to 10.1 billion yuan and 13.4 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The report suggests that the company should enjoy a higher valuation due to the expected improvements in its core business [4]