LZLJ(000568) 华鑫证券·2024-12-15 06:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) [4][9]. Core Viewpoints - Luzhou Laojiao is recognized as the first listed liquor company in Shenzhen and has established itself as a leader in the strong aroma liquor segment. The company has a clear brand strategy with a focus on high-end products, which is expected to drive future growth [6][21]. - The high-end liquor market is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to increase from 512 billion yuan in 2017 to 1664 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% [7][49]. - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a 32-year CAGR of 18.3% in total revenue and 22% in net profit, indicating robust growth and stability [22][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Luzhou Laojiao was established in 1994 and has become a prominent player in the liquor industry, with a cumulative cash dividend of 433 billion yuan as of mid-2024, which is 349 times the initial investment [6][26]. - The company has a stable state-owned shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder being the Luzhou State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [26][29]. Market Performance - The overall liquor market in China is expected to reach 648.8 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [7][40]. - The high-end liquor segment has seen a significant increase in market share, with expectations to rise from 9% in 2017 to 21.6% by 2026 [7][49]. Organizational Management - The company has a well-defined brand strategy, focusing on dual brands and three product lines, which has contributed to its market recognition and sales performance [8][21]. - Luzhou Laojiao has upgraded its organizational model and improved the quality of its distributors, enhancing its market presence [8][33]. Financial Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for Luzhou Laojiao is projected to be 9.81 yuan in 2024, 10.20 yuan in 2025, and 11.23 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 14, and 12 times respectively [9][10].