SDBH(600966) 华福证券·2024-12-18 00:24Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Bohui Paper with a "Buy" rating [4][5]. Core Views - Bohui Paper is a leading domestic white card paper enterprise, benefiting from the integration with APP, which enhances its scale and operational efficiency [15][22]. - The white card paper market in China is highly concentrated, with the top four companies holding nearly 80% of the market share, indicating a potential for price stabilization and recovery in profitability [2][37]. - The company is focusing on differentiation and high value-added products, actively developing specialty white card products to enhance its competitive edge [3][62]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Bohui Paper, established in 1994, specializes in the integrated research, production, and sales of various paper products, including white card paper, cultural paper, and box board paper [15][19]. - The company reported revenues of 13.967 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%, and a net profit of 149 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [15][19]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The white card paper market is experiencing a supply-demand optimization, with a significant increase in production capacity expected in 2024-2025, primarily concentrated among large manufacturers [2][37]. - Recent announcements of production halts by major players like Chenming Paper indicate a reduction in supply, which may lead to price stabilization in the near term [2][55]. Competitive Advantages - Bohui Paper aims to achieve cost leadership and efficiency through technological advancements and product differentiation, focusing on high-value specialty products [3][62]. - The company has successfully launched new products, such as sterile liquid packaging paper, which opens up new market opportunities [3][62]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 1.1%, 7.9%, and 5.9% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 31%, 100%, and 45% respectively [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 0.18 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.52 yuan [4]. - The report emphasizes the long-term benefits of the company's strategic focus on product differentiation and efficiency, alongside short-term recovery in profitability due to supply-demand improvements [4][61].