SF Holding(002352) 群益证券·2024-12-23 09:08Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a slight increase in profit forecasts, with projected net profits of 9.7 billion, 11.2 billion, and 12.8 billion RMB for 2024-2026, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of +18%, +15%, and +14% respectively [4]. - The company has been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, which is anticipated to enhance the liquidity of its H shares and positively impact their price performance [18]. - The international and supply chain business is recovering, with a significant revenue increase of 25% year-over-year in the latter half of the year [9]. Company Overview - The company operates in the transportation industry, with a current A-share price of 40.25 RMB and a market capitalization of 192.746 billion RMB [1]. - Major shareholders include Shenzhen Mingde Holdings Development Co., Ltd., holding 51.38% of shares [1]. - The company has a total of 4,986.19 million shares issued, with 4,788.73 million A-shares [1]. Financial Performance - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.0 RMB, 2.3 RMB, and 2.7 RMB for 2024-2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20x, 17x, and 15x for A shares, and 16x, 14x, and 12x for H shares [4]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 82.34 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 33.38% [21]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 258.409 billion RMB in 2023 to 279.234 billion RMB in 2024 [23]. Product Mix - The company’s product mix includes 44.0% from time-sensitive services, 9.9% from economic services, 13.1% from express services, 3.8% from cold chain and pharmaceutical services, 2.9% from same-city delivery, and 23.2% from supply chain and international services [3].