Hengrui Pharma(600276) 浙商证券·2024-12-25 00:23Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a new phase of accelerated growth in innovation and internationalization starting from 2025, driven by the commercialization of key products such as CDK4/6, PD-L1, and JAK inhibitors [21][35] - The company's strong clinical execution and pipeline development capabilities are expected to drive rapid commercialization of multiple innovative drugs, including ADC and bispecific antibody platforms [3][35] - The company's internationalization efforts are accelerating, with multiple products in late-stage clinical trials overseas and significant licensing deals contributing to revenue growth [3][16] Pipeline and Commercialization - The company has a robust pipeline with multiple potential first-in-class (FIC) and best-in-class (BIC) products, including JAK inhibitors, IL-17, IL-4R, and GLP-1/GIP dual-target drugs [3][35] - Key products such as HER2 ADC, CLDN18.2 ADC, and PD-L1/TGF-βRII bispecific antibodies are in late-stage clinical trials and are expected to drive future growth [3][35] - The company has 8 innovative drugs and over 20 new indications in the NDA stage as of October 21, 2024, with products like CDK4/6 and PD-L1 expected to see rapid market penetration [3] Financial Performance and Outlook - The company's revenue and net profit have shown a clear recovery trend since Q1 2023, driven by the commercialization of innovative drugs and the easing impact of centralized procurement [6][27] - Revenue is expected to reach 26.816 billion, 29.286 billion, and 34.723 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit expected to grow significantly [35] - The company's ROE has historically remained stable at around 20%, and a return to this level is anticipated as the impact of centralized procurement diminishes [21] International Expansion - The company's first innovative drug, camrelizumab, has been submitted for BLA in the US, with a target review date of March 23, 2025 [3] - Three ADC products have received Fast Track designation from the FDA, and the company has secured significant licensing deals, including a 1.6 billion euro upfront payment from Merck Healthcare in H1 2024 [3][16] R&D and Innovation - The company has a strong R&D team with over 5,000 employees and has consistently invested heavily in R&D, with R&D expenses reaching 6.204 billion yuan in 2023 [13][56] - The company has a diversified pipeline across multiple therapeutic areas, including oncology, autoimmune diseases, and metabolic disorders, with a focus on cutting-edge technologies like ADC and bispecific antibodies [3][35] Sales and Marketing - The company's sales efficiency has improved significantly, with sales per employee increasing from 1.43 million yuan in 2018 to 2.5 million yuan in 2023 [21][67] - The sales team has been optimized, and the company is well-positioned to support the commercialization of new innovative drugs [21]