BNBMPLC(000786) 长江证券·2025-01-03 00:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [3]. Core Views - The company has launched a 2024 restricted stock incentive plan, which is expected to strengthen mid-term growth expectations and enhance valuation [5][7]. - The incentive plan includes performance assessments at three levels: company-wide, business unit, and individual performance, with specific targets for net profit growth and return on equity [5][6]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated to be 45.60 billion, 54.72 billion, and 65.67 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of around 20% for 2026 and 2027 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Incentive Plan - The company plans to grant a total of 12.90 million shares, accounting for 0.764% of the total share capital, with an initial grant of 11.17 million shares at a price of 18.20 yuan per share, to be unlocked over three years [3][5]. Market Demand and Performance - The demand for gypsum board is expected to remain stable, with a correlation to the non-manufacturing PMI index, indicating a recovery in the service sector and construction industry [6]. - The company maintains a strong market position, with a balanced strategy for both low-end and high-end products, ensuring stable profitability [6][7]. External Growth - The company is actively pursuing external growth through acquisitions and integration, with successful outcomes in its waterproofing and coating businesses [7]. - The financial foundation and backing from the group are expected to support continued external acquisitions [7]. Financial Projections - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 27.39 billion, 31.39 billion, and 37.36 billion respectively, with net profits expected to reach 3.88 billion, 4.61 billion, and 5.49 billion [23]. - The estimated PE ratios for 2025 and 2026 are approximately 11.1 and 9.3 times, indicating a valuation bottom [7].