牧原股份：年度降本目标达成，盈利能力再上阶梯

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved its annual cost reduction target, with profitability reaching a new level [1] - The company's Q4 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to be between 6 52 billion and 7 52 billion yuan [1] - The company's pig production volume accelerated in Q4 2024, with costs continuing to decline [2] - The company aims to achieve a cost target of 12 yuan/kg in 2025, assuming no fluctuations in feed raw material prices [2] - The company's pig inventory and breeding sow inventory have increased significantly, indicating strong growth potential for 2025 [3] Financial Performance - The company's 2024 full-year pig production volume reached 71 602 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 12 2% [2] - The average selling price of commercial pigs in 2024 was 16 3 yuan/kg, with a complete cost of 14 0 yuan/kg and a profit per head of 281 yuan [2] - In Q4 2024, the company's pig production volume was 21 458 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 27 7%, with a complete cost of 13 1 yuan/kg and a profit per head of 360 5 yuan [2] - The company's pig inventory at the end of November 2024 was approximately 49 million heads, a 22 5% increase from the end of 2023 [3] - The company's breeding sow inventory at the end of 2024 was 3 512 million heads, a 12 2% increase from the end of 2023 [3] Financial Forecasts - The report adjusts the company's profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 17 98 billion yuan, 24 35 billion yuan, and 19 17 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The company's 2024-2026 revenue growth rates are forecasted to be 26 7%, -0 8%, and 1 6%, respectively [4] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit growth rates are forecasted to be 521 7%, 35 4%, and -21 3%, respectively [4] - The company's 2024-2026 EPS is forecasted to be 3 29 yuan, 4 46 yuan, and 3 51 yuan, respectively [4] - The company's 2024-2026 ROE is forecasted to be 20 4%, 23 2%, and 15 7%, respectively [4] Valuation Metrics - The company's 2025 PE ratio is 8 4x [3] - The company's 2025 PB ratio is 2 0x [4] - The company's 2025 EV/EBITDA ratio is 6 2x [9]