OPPEIN(603833) 华福证券·2025-01-19 06:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [19]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 182.26 billion to CNY 205.04 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 10% to 20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between CNY 25.8 billion and CNY 28.8 billion, a decrease of 15% to 5% year-on-year [3][4]. - The fourth quarter is expected to show a significant improvement in performance, with a revenue decline of only 12% year-on-year and a net profit decline of 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous quarters [3][4]. - The company is focusing on its "whole home" strategy, with growth expected from both the integrated and retail segments, alongside strong performance in overseas markets [4][5]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is forecasted at CNY 19,460 million, down 15% from 2023, with a recovery expected in 2025 with a projected revenue of CNY 20,102 million, reflecting a 3% increase [6]. - Key profitability metrics for 2024 show an increase in gross margin to 35.5%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 14.63%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - The company has a strong cash position with CNY 9 billion in net cash as of the first half of 2024, and it has committed to a stable dividend payout of CNY 1.5 billion over the next three years [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The report revises the profit forecast for 2024 to CNY 27.2 billion, with subsequent years projected at CNY 28.5 billion in 2025 and CNY 31.2 billion in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -10%, +5%, and +10% respectively [5][6]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is CNY 4.47, with a gradual increase to CNY 5.12 by 2026 [6].