supor(002032) 兴业证券·2025-01-21 06:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [20]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from short-term national subsidies and the introduction of new gifting features on WeChat, which are expected to enhance sales in the kitchen appliance sector. Long-term growth is anticipated through product diversification in essential kitchen appliances and small home appliances [3][5]. - The company's external sales are primarily driven by SEB's OEM orders, which are characterized by large scale, low risk, and stable profitability. Short-term growth is expected to stabilize, while long-term opportunities exist for further orders from SEB as the company enhances its product offerings and manufacturing capabilities [3][7]. - The company has demonstrated strong shareholder returns, with increasing cash dividends and a notable dividend yield. The report highlights the company's robust fundamentals and superior return on equity compared to peers [3][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 2.87, 3.10, and 3.37 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.5, 17.2, and 15.8 [4][14]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales - Short-term benefits from national subsidies and WeChat's new gifting feature are expected to support stable growth. The company is well-positioned as a leading brand in rice cookers and is likely to benefit from expanded subsidy categories in 2025 [5][6]. - Long-term strategies include solidifying its core offerings in essential kitchen appliances while actively expanding into new categories such as kitchen electronics and cleaning appliances [5]. External Sales - The company anticipates a return to stable growth in external sales, primarily driven by SEB orders, with expected sales of 70.47 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 19% [7][8]. - The long-term outlook remains positive as the company aims to capture a larger share of SEB's non-China business through enhanced product offerings and manufacturing capabilities [7]. Shareholder Returns - The company has significantly increased its cash dividend payout, with cash dividend rates of 80%, 167%, and 100% from 2021 to 2023. The current stock price corresponds to a dividend yield of 5% if the 2024 cash dividend rate remains consistent with 2023 [13][14]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to maintain strong earnings growth, with EPS estimates for 2024-2026 indicating a steady increase. The report emphasizes the company's leading position in the domestic kitchen appliance market and its potential for future growth through product diversification [4][14].