CTG DUTY-FREE(601888) 长江证券·2025-01-26 08:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 56.492 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.36%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.263 billion yuan, down 36.50% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 4.145 billion yuan, a decline of 37.68% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, revenue was 13.5 billion yuan, down 19% year-on-year, and net profit was 340 million yuan, down 77% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to reach a bottom in performance in 2024, with the upcoming closure of Hainan's borders potentially impacting market sentiment. However, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the company's core competitive advantages in scale, brand, and operational management. A recovery in the economic environment and consumer demand is anticipated to lead to a performance turnaround [2][4]. - Projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 5 billion yuan and 5.8 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 25x and 22x [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the full year of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 56.492 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.36% compared to the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.263 billion yuan, down 36.50% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit was 4.145 billion yuan, reflecting a 37.68% decline [2][4]. - In Q4 2024, the company generated revenue of 13.5 billion yuan, a 19% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 340 million yuan, which is a 77% decline year-on-year [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The Hainan duty-free market faced challenges, with total sales of 30.94 billion yuan in 2024, down 29% year-on-year. The average transaction value decreased by 16% to 5,444 yuan, and the number of shoppers fell by 16% to 5.683 million [2][4]. - Despite the demand pressure, the company managed to increase its market share by nearly 2 percentage points [2][4]. Strategic Developments - The company has successfully bid for six new city duty-free stores, enhancing its "duty-free + taxable" and "imported + domestic" retail model. Following recent policy changes, the company is actively participating in the bidding for city duty-free store operating rights [2][4]. - The product matrix has been enriched, with over 40% of the brands introduced being domestic, which has positively impacted sales and consumer recognition of domestic brands [2][4].