HDPI(600027) 长江证券·2025-02-10 02:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a total on-grid electricity of 507.32 billion kWh in the fourth quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.25%. The average on-grid electricity price for the fourth quarter was 516.34 RMB/MWh, up 0.73% year-on-year. The average price of coal decreased by approximately 135.10 RMB/ton to 822.60 RMB/ton, leading to a positive outlook for the company's operational performance in the fourth quarter and for the entire year of 2024 [2][5]. - The company expects stable operational performance in the fourth quarter, with a projected total electricity generation of 2,226.26 billion kWh for 2024, a slight decrease of about 0.52% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 is estimated to be around 511.89 RMB/MWh, reflecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 0.95% [5][9]. - The company is focused on cost optimization, which is expected to lead to a positive performance outlook for the entire year of 2024. The company anticipates steady performance from its equity investments in renewable energy and coal companies, contributing to overall stability [9][10]. Summary by Sections Operational Performance - In the fourth quarter, the company completed on-grid electricity of 507.32 billion kWh, a 6.25% increase year-on-year. The coal-fired electricity generation reached 447.29 billion kWh, up 6.26% year-on-year, while gas-fired electricity generation increased by 28.06% due to new units coming online [2][5]. - The company’s total on-grid electricity for 2024 is projected at 2,084.53 billion kWh, a decrease of 0.52% year-on-year, primarily due to the expansion of renewable energy capacity and significant hydropower generation in the first half of the year [5][9]. Financial Outlook - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 is expected to be 511.89 RMB/MWh, down 0.95% from the previous year. However, the fourth quarter's average price increased by 0.73% year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of gas-fired electricity in the mix [5][9]. - The company’s cost optimization efforts are reflected in the average coal price of 822.60 RMB/ton for the fourth quarter, a decrease of 14.11% year-on-year, which is expected to support a positive performance outlook [9][10]. Growth Potential - The company is set to expand its scale with the injection of high-quality gas-fired assets, which will account for 27.16% of its existing capacity. Future asset injections from the parent group are anticipated, enhancing long-term growth prospects [9][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 0.56 RMB, 0.56 RMB, and 0.64 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.19, 9.14, and 8.08 [9][10].