Nanhua Futures(603093) 东吴证券·2025-03-11 14:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nanhua Futures is maintained at "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance met expectations, with notable growth in overseas business despite a decline in total revenue and net profit [8] - The report highlights a significant increase in interest income due to favorable overseas interest rates, while domestic commission income faced challenges [8] - The company plans to list in Hong Kong to enhance its overseas business capabilities and market competitiveness [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 57.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.56%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.58 billion yuan, an increase of 13.96% [8] - The breakdown of revenue sources shows a decline in commission income by 11% to 5.4 billion yuan, while interest income rose by 25% to 6.8 billion yuan [8] - The company's return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is estimated at 11.71%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [8] Segment Performance Summary - Futures brokerage revenue decreased by 13% to 4.9 billion yuan, with a gross margin decline of 11.38 percentage points to 7.13% [8] - Wealth management revenue faced pressure, dropping 24% to 0.7 billion yuan, while risk management revenue fell by 10% to 44.9 billion yuan [8] - Overseas business revenue increased by 15% to 6.5 billion yuan, indicating strong performance in this segment [8] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 5.39 billion yuan for 2025 and 5.88 billion yuan for 2026, with expected growth rates of 17.72% and 9.15% respectively [8] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.74, 12.59, and 11.12 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [8]