南华期货（603093）：业绩符合预期，境外业务表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Nanhua Futures [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance met expectations, with notable growth in overseas business despite a decline in total revenue [8] - The report highlights a significant increase in net interest income due to favorable overseas interest rates, while commission income from futures brokerage has decreased [8] - The company plans to list in Hong Kong to enhance its overseas business capabilities and competitiveness [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Nanhua Futures achieved total revenue of 5.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.56%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 458 million yuan, an increase of 13.96% [8] - The company's return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected at 11.71%, up by 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [8] Revenue Breakdown - Commission income from futures brokerage fell by 11% to 540 million yuan, primarily due to declining brokerage revenues [8] - Net interest income rose by 25% to 680 million yuan, attributed to the sustained high-interest environment overseas [8] - Investment income dropped by 64% to 60 million yuan, mainly due to reduced profits from risk management business [8] Business Segments - The operating profit from futures brokerage, wealth management, risk management, and overseas business was 35 million yuan, -3.35 million yuan, 9.63 million yuan, and 466 million yuan respectively, with overseas business showing a year-on-year increase of 17% [8] - The company’s wealth management business faced challenges, with revenue down 24% to 70 million yuan [8] Future Outlook - The report revises profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, estimating net profits of 539 million yuan and 588 million yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 17.72% and 9.15% [8] - The current market capitalization corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 13.74, 12.59, and 11.12 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]