NBGF(603788) 东兴证券·2025-03-17 11:15Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected PE of 19.8x for 2024, 15.9x for 2025, and 12.9x for 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the automotive electronic shifting and throttle control systems, benefiting from the trends of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry. Its strong cost control and high efficiency are expected to maintain its competitive edge [1][4]. - The company has a significant market share in the domestic automotive market, particularly with independent brands, and is poised to expand into joint ventures and overseas markets [2][4]. - The company's financial health is robust, with stable cash flow and increasing dividends, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1999, specializes in automotive shifting control systems, electronic throttle pedals, and cables, with a revenue distribution of 51% from shifting systems, 18% from electronic throttle pedals, and 18% from cables in 2023 [1][16]. - It has a strong customer base, including major domestic manufacturers like Geely, BYD, and Great Wall [1][16]. Product Demand and Market Position - The demand for electronic shifting systems and throttle pedals is increasing due to the trends of electrification and automation in vehicles. The penetration of automotive electronics is expected to rise significantly, with the company poised to capture a growing market share [1][42]. - The company has a competitive advantage in supplying independent brands, with an estimated market share of nearly 50% in this segment, and is expanding its reach to joint venture and overseas markets [2][4]. Financial Performance and Efficiency - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control and operational efficiency, with a management expense ratio approximately 10 percentage points lower than industry peers. Its inventory turnover and fixed asset turnover rates are consistently above industry averages [3][4]. - The company has maintained a stable cash flow, with an average net inflow of 150 million yuan annually since its listing, and a cash dividend payout ratio consistently above 70% [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Value - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.49 billion yuan, 1.73 billion yuan, and 2.03 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 16.2%, and 16.9% [4][12]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 201 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 309 million yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][12].