塔牌集团（002233）：区域市场份额稳固，高股息凸显安全边际

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [2][3]. Core Insights - The company has a stable market share in the regional market, with a high dividend yield that highlights a safety margin for investors [2][3]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 4,278 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 23%. However, a recovery in profitability is anticipated in subsequent years [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in a relatively closed market, supported by a reasonable capacity layout and resource endowment [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: The company reported a revenue of 4,278 million yuan for 2024, down 22.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 538 million yuan, a decrease of 27.5% [3]. - Sales Volume: In 2024, the company's cement sales volume was 15.859 million tons, down 10.1% year-on-year, but the market share remained stable [3]. - Cement Price: The average cement price for 2024 was 238 yuan per ton, a decrease of 45.8 yuan compared to the previous year, influenced by weak demand and external competition [3]. - Cost and Margin: The cement cost per ton was 189.0 yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year, while the gross profit per ton was 49.2 yuan, down 26.4% [3]. - Dividends: The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 5.9 billion yuan for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.2%, which supports stock price stability [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 613 million yuan, 667 million yuan, and 701 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.6, 14.3, and 13.6 [2][3].