PSBC(601658) 华创证券·2025-03-28 08:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) with a target price of 6.25 CNY, compared to the current price of 5.33 CNY [4][9]. Core Views - The bank's net interest margin remains resilient, with a proactive reduction in savings agency fee rates by 4 basis points [2][9]. - In 2024, the bank achieved operating income of 348.775 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.479 billion CNY, up 0.24% year-on-year [2][10]. - The non-performing loan ratio increased by 4 basis points to 0.9%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 15.7 percentage points to 286% [2][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Growth: The bank's revenue growth is supported by strong net interest income and other non-interest income, with a 7.33% year-on-year increase in Q4 2024 [8][9]. - Loan Growth: Total loans increased by 9.4% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 13.5% and retail loans by 6.7% [8][9]. - Interest Margin: The net interest margin decreased by 6 basis points to 1.8% in Q4 2024, but remains competitive within the industry [8][9]. - Asset Quality: The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a focus on risk management despite some pressure on retail loan quality [8][9]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 1.2% for 2025, 3.7% for 2026, and 6.5% for 2027, while net profit growth is expected to be 1.4% in 2025, 3.3% in 2026, and 4.0% in 2027 [9][10]. - The bank's estimated price-to-book ratio for 2025 is 0.7x, with a historical average of 0.72x over the past five years [9][10].