SF Holding(002352) 海通国际证券·2025-04-01 07:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for S.F. Holding with a target price of RMB 48.50, based on a current price of RMB 43.12 [2][15]. Core Insights - In FY24, S.F. Holding achieved a revenue of RMB 284.42 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and a net profit of RMB 10.17 billion, which is up 23.51% YoY [3][12]. - The company is transitioning from a traditional "product-selling" model to a "solution-providing" strategy, which is expected to drive sustained growth [15]. Revenue Performance - The total business volume for 2024 reached 13.33 billion parcels, marking an 11.3% increase YoY, with express logistics revenue of RMB 205.8 billion, up 7.7% YoY [4][13]. - International operations outperformed domestic growth, with supply chain and international business revenue increasing by 17.5% YoY to RMB 70.5 billion [4][13]. Cost Management - The company improved its gross margin by 1.1 percentage points to 13.9% in 2024 through enhanced efficiency in transfer, transportation, and delivery processes [5][13]. Shareholder Returns - S.F. Holding increased its dividend payout ratio from 35% to 40% in 2024, distributing a total of RMB 4.10 billion in dividends, along with a one-time special dividend of RMB 4.80 billion [14]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profit for FY25-27 is RMB 12.10 billion, RMB 14.38 billion, and RMB 16.45 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.43, RMB 2.88, and RMB 3.30 [6][15].