YUEXIU PROPERTY(00123) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-01 09:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][9][21] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance in 2023, with a significant drop in net profit and profit margins, but future revenue recognition is expected to be strong [9] - The company has a robust cash position and is focusing on land acquisition in key cities, with a sales target increase for 2025 [9] - The company is well-positioned with a strong land bank and low financing costs, making its current valuation attractive compared to peers [9] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 80,222 million - 2024: 86,401 million (10.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: 90,807 million (5.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: 98,344 million (8.3% YoY growth) - 2027E: 106,310 million (8.1% YoY growth) [8][10] - Net profit forecasts indicate a significant decline in 2024, with a recovery expected in subsequent years: - 2023: 3,185 million - 2024: 1,040 million (-67.3% YoY) - 2025E: 1,095 million (5.3% YoY growth) - 2026E: 1,319 million (20.4% YoY growth) - 2027E: 1,582 million (20.0% YoY growth) [8][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be: - 2023: 0.85 - 2024: 0.26 - 2025E: 0.27 - 2026E: 0.33 - 2027E: 0.39 [8][10] Company Overview - The company reported a total cash position of 500.5 billion in 2024, with a net debt ratio of 51.7% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.1 times, indicating a strong liquidity position [9] - The company has a land bank of 1,971 million square meters as of the end of 2024, with a focus on first and second-tier cities [9] - The company’s average financing cost is reported at 3.49%, reflecting a decrease of 33 basis points year-on-year [9]