CTG DUTY-FREE(601888) 天风证券·2025-04-01 10:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to face performance pressure in 2024 due to a decline in traffic, particularly in Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping. However, it is anticipated to benefit from the expansion of city duty-free policies, which could stimulate domestic consumption [3][6]. - The company's market position remains strong, with an increase in market share despite the overall decline in Hainan's duty-free shopping amounts [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.5 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 19.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 348 million yuan, down 76.93% year-over-year [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company expects revenue of 56.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.38% year-over-year, and a net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-over-year. The gross margin is projected to be 32.0%, slightly up by 0.2 percentage points [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.05 yuan per share for 2024, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 50.91% [1]. Market Dynamics - In 2024, Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping amounted to 30.9 billion yuan, a decline of 29.3% year-over-year, with the number of shoppers decreasing by 15.9% [2]. - The company has seen a solidified market position, with a market share increase of nearly 2 percentage points despite the overall market decline [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the new city duty-free policies implemented in October 2024, which are likely to enhance domestic consumption and facilitate the return of overseas shopping demand [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 59 billion yuan, 63.5 billion yuan, and 69.4 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.7 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.5 billion yuan [3][5].