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兴发集团(600141):继续提升分红率,磷矿石和特种化学品盈利持续增长,草甘膦和有机硅承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company continues to enhance its dividend payout ratio, with profits from phosphate rock and specialty chemicals showing sustained growth, while glyphosate and organic silicon face pressure [1] - The company reported a revenue of 28,396 million yuan for 2024, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1,601 million yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 11.03 billion yuan, which represents 68.89% of the net profit for 2024 [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 29,364 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [2] - Net profit for 2025 is projected to be 1,823 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.65 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13 [2] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 21.87 yuan, with a market capitalization of 24,128 million yuan [3] - The company has a dividend yield of 2.74%, based on the most recent dividend announcement [3] Business Performance Insights - The phosphate chemical sector is experiencing high profitability, supported by abundant phosphate reserves [5] - The glyphosate and organic silicon segments are under short-term pressure, but sales growth is expected to provide long-term resilience [5] - The specialty chemicals segment has shown a 14% increase in sales volume, contributing positively to the company's overall performance [5]