扬农化工（600486）：业绩基本符合预期，葫芦岛进入贡献期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 was 10,435 million yuan, a decrease of 9.09% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,202 million yuan, down 23.19% year-on-year [10][11] - The decline in revenue was primarily due to a significant drop in the average selling prices of raw materials, which led to a total product price loss of 1,500 million yuan [21][27] - The company is expected to see a recovery in net profit, with projections of 1,467 million yuan, 1,777 million yuan, and 2,000 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [35] Revenue and Sales Performance - The company's sales revenue for 2024 was 10,435 million yuan, down 10.43 million yuan year-on-year, with raw materials, trade, and formulations contributing 6,418 million yuan, 2,306 million yuan, and 1,545 million yuan respectively [2][11] - Raw material sales volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year to 99,900 tons, while formulation sales volume increased by 1.8% year-on-year to 36,400 tons [16][11] - The average selling price of raw materials was 64,300 yuan/ton, down 16% year-on-year, and the average selling price of formulations was 42,500 yuan/ton, down 9.38% year-on-year [21][3] Profitability and Cost Control - The company's overall gross margin for 2024 was 23.1%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, with raw material gross margin at 27.7% and formulation gross margin at 29.8% [27][28] - The company implemented effective cost control measures, achieving savings of approximately 635 million yuan across various operational areas [28][30] - The increase in impairment losses negatively impacted net profit, with credit impairment losses increasing by 80 million yuan year-on-year [30] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing construction and commissioning of the Liaoning Youchuang project, which is projected to contribute significantly to revenue in 2025 [33] - The agricultural chemical industry is currently at a cyclical low, but there are expectations for recovery in demand and pricing in the coming years as inventory levels normalize [26]