QYDL(002039) 海通国际证券·2025-04-18 11:07Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "OUTPERFORM" rating, projecting EPS for 2025-27 at RMB 0.96, 1.01, and 1.19 respectively [4][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a revenue of RMB 1.93 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 2.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 220 million, down 17.6% year-over-year [4][9]. - The report highlights that the company's performance is influenced by several factors, including a profit increase in 2023 due to fee reversals, a decrease in photovoltaic utilization hours, and lower finance expenses contributing positively to profits [4][9]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 410 million, representing an 87.5% year-over-year increase, driven by improved water inflow and reduced capital expenditures [4][9]. Financial Data and Forecast - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 1,990 million, with a significant decline of 23.8% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be RMB 265 million, down 36.1% [3]. - The company anticipates a recovery in water inflow, estimating an increase in hydropower sector net profit by RMB 130 million in 2025 [4][9]. - The report also notes that the company's financial structure is expected to improve, with potential increases in dividends as a result of capital structure enhancements [4][9]. Comparable Company Valuation - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is projected at 16.3x, with the report assigning a PE of 18.5x for the company, leading to a target price of RMB 17.76 [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's competitive positioning within the industry, particularly in relation to peers such as Guiguan Electric [4][9].