Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue in line with expectations for 2024, with net profit exceeding forecasts. The growth in bulk snacks continues, with market share accelerating towards the top [1] - The company is expected to continue gaining market share due to its leading capabilities across multiple dimensions, with significant elasticity in net profit margins [1] - Future potential for market capitalization growth is supported by the recovery of minority equity and the expansion of discount supermarket opportunities [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2023: 9,294 million - 2024: 32,329 million (+248% YoY) - 2025E: 55,387 million (+71% YoY) - 2026E: 61,785 million (+12% YoY) - 2027E: 66,003 million (+7% YoY) [2][9] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2023: -83 million - 2024: 294 million (+454% YoY) - 2025E: 749 million (+155% YoY) - 2026E: 910 million (+22% YoY) - 2027E: 1,171 million (+29% YoY) [2][9] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: -0.46 - 2024: 1.63 - 2025E: 4.16 - 2026E: 5.06 - 2027E: 6.51 [2][9] - Profitability Ratios: - Gross Margin: 9.3% (2023) to 11.0% (2027E) - Net Margin: -0.9% (2023) to 1.8% (2027E) [9] Operational Highlights - The company opened over 9,652 new stores in 2024, with a closure rate of only 2.2%, resulting in a total of 14,196 stores by the end of Q4 2024 [7] - The bulk snack segment saw a revenue increase of 262.9% in 2024, while the edible fungus segment reported a slight revenue increase of 0.7% [7] - The company’s Q4 gross margin improved to 11.4%, with a net margin of 2.2%, reflecting enhanced supply chain efficiency and scale effects [7]
万辰集团（300972）：24年如期兑现，净利率弹性明显