wanhua(600309) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-23 02:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 has shown signs of recovery after hitting a low, with expectations for a positive outlook at the bottom of the cycle [1][6] - The company reported a total revenue of 182.07 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.03 billion yuan, down 22.5% year-on-year [2][6] - The MDI segment is expected to see a recovery in demand, particularly from the refrigerator industry, which has shown strong export growth [18][6] - The company has made significant provisions for asset impairments in 2024, which will allow for a lighter operational burden moving forward [16][6] - The report anticipates that the company's MDI global market share could approach 40% with new capacity coming online [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 200.03 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 14.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [2][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 4.69 yuan for 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 12 [2][6] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 15.4% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13.5% [2][6] Market Data - As of April 22, 2025, the company's closing price was 54.08 yuan, with a market capitalization of 169.8 billion yuan [3][6] - The company has a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.7, indicating a significant margin of safety compared to its historical average [6] Segment Performance - The polyurethane segment is expected to see revenue growth of 12.55% in 2024, driven by strong demand in the export market [7][6] - The petrochemical segment reported a revenue increase of 4.6% in 2024, although profitability remains under pressure due to weak demand [9][10] - The new materials segment is projected to grow by 18.61% in 2024, supported by successful project launches [11][12]