STANLEY(002588) 海通国际证券·2025-04-23 07:09Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to see continued growth in compound fertilizer sales in 2024, with profitability improving in 2025 as new capacities ramp up [2][8]. - The earnings forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised upwards, with new projections for 2027 introduced, estimating EPS at RMB 0.86, 1.04, and 1.27 respectively [2][8]. - Based on the 2025 industry average PE of 14.9x, the target price is set at RMB 12.72, reflecting a significant increase from the previous target of RMB 8.45 [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 10.26 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 0.83 billion, up 17.89% year-on-year [3][9]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of RMB 2.38 billion, down 0.24% year-on-year but up 8.06% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of RMB 0.16 billion, up 33.57% year-on-year [3][9]. - For the first quarter of 2025, total revenue reached RMB 3.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.56% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.85%, with a net profit of RMB 0.29 billion, up 20.84% year-on-year [10]. Sales and Production Insights - The company reported compound fertilizer sales of 3.35 million tons in 2024, marking a 12.68% increase year-on-year [3][9]. - The phosphate facilities are operational, and a new production line for 0.3 million tons of compound fertilizer is running smoothly [3][9]. Financial Projections - The financial summary indicates projected revenues of RMB 11.56 billion for 2025, with a net profit of RMB 0.99 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 19.3% [5]. - The EPS projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 0.86, 1.04, and 1.27 respectively, with a steady increase in net asset return rates [5][6].