ZHENHUA(000733) 民生证券·2025-04-24 10:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its industry leadership and growth potential [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.22 billion yuan for 2024, a year-over-year decline of 33.0%, and a net profit of 970 million yuan, down 63.8% year-over-year. The first quarter of 2025 also showed a revenue of 910 million yuan, down 10.4% year-over-year, with a net profit of 59 million yuan, down 42.6% year-over-year. The performance aligns with expectations despite significant challenges in the market [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 5.7 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 9.2%, and a total profit of 1.145 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-over-year. These figures are budget estimates and do not represent a definitive profit forecast for 2025 [4]. - The company is positioned as a core supplier in the domestic high-tech electronic components sector, leveraging its reliable product system and full industry chain collaboration to capitalize on opportunities in emerging fields such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, civil aviation, and new energy vehicles [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit due to market cyclicality and price reductions. The gross margin fell by 9.6 percentage points to 49.7%, and the net margin decreased by 15.8 percentage points to 18.6% [3]. - The company's subsidiaries also reported varying degrees of revenue and profit declines in 2024, with the main subsidiary, Zhihua YG, generating 1.24 billion yuan in revenue, down 38.0% year-over-year, and a net profit of 500 million yuan, down 48.8% [4]. Cost and Cash Flow - The company's operating expenses decreased by 6.9% year-over-year to 1.39 billion yuan in 2024, but the expense ratio increased by 7.5 percentage points to 26.7% due to a significant drop in revenue [5]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company reported improved operating cash flow of 1.6 billion yuan compared to 1.23 billion yuan in 2023 [5]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.134 billion yuan, 1.371 billion yuan, and 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 27x, 22x, and 19x [6][7].