wanhua(600309) 华鑫证券·2025-04-25 08:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8]. Core Insights - The company, a leading player in the polyurethane sector, continues to experience growth in production and sales, although profitability has declined, impacting overall performance [5][8]. - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 182.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 22.49% to 13.03 billion yuan [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 54.45 yuan, with a market capitalization of 171 billion yuan and a 52-week price range of 54.08 to 93.75 yuan [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company is the largest global supplier of MDI and TDI, with current capacities of 3.8 million tons/year and 1.11 million tons/year, respectively. Future expansions will increase these capacities to 4.5 million tons/year and 1.44 million tons/year [5]. - In 2024, the production and sales of polyurethane products increased by 16.22% and 15.40%, respectively, contributing to a revenue growth of 13% in this segment [5]. - The petrochemical segment also saw production and sales growth of 14.37% and 15.69%, with a revenue increase of 5% [5]. - The fine chemicals and new materials segment experienced a production increase of 26.87% and sales growth of 27.65%, leading to a revenue rise of 19% [5]. Cost and Cash Flow - The overall expense ratio has increased due to rising employee costs and depreciation, with sales, management, finance, and R&D expense ratios rising by 0.12, 0.26, 0.19, and 0.17 percentage points, respectively [6]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was 30.05 billion yuan, an increase of 32.56% year-on-year, primarily driven by increased product sales [6]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company's unique position in the domestic polyurethane market is expected to remain strong, with new capacity set to further solidify its leading status [8]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.27 billion yuan, 18.11 billion yuan, and 19.50 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.2, 9.4, and 8.8 times [8][10].