HIKVISION(002415) 国泰海通证券·2025-04-25 12:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 39.96 CNY per share [5][11]. Core Insights - The company faced performance pressure in 2024 but has shown signs of recovery in Q1 2025. The overseas and innovation businesses have become significant growth pillars, and the future development is promising, especially with the emphasis on AI [2][11]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 92.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.98 billion CNY, a decrease of 15.1%. However, in Q1 2025, revenue reached 18.53 billion CNY, up 4.01%, and net profit was 2.04 billion CNY, up 6.41% [11]. - The combined revenue from overseas and innovation businesses exceeded 50% of total revenue for the first time in 2024, indicating a shift in the company's growth strategy [11]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials show a steady increase in revenue from 89.34 billion CNY in 2023 to 117.62 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.3% [4][12]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 11.98 billion CNY in 2024 to 17.39 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.30 CNY in 2024 to 1.88 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28 times for 2025 [11][12]. Business Performance - The company's main business segments, including PBG, EBG, and SMBG, experienced revenue declines in 2024, but the overseas and innovation segments showed strong growth, with overseas revenue at 25.99 billion CNY, up 8.39%, and innovation revenue at 22.48 billion CNY, up 21.19% [11]. - The AI initiatives are expected to enhance the company's capabilities, with advancements in multi-modal algorithms and applications in various sectors such as traffic congestion diagnosis and supply chain optimization [11].