CHINA PET FOODS(002891) 光大证券·2025-04-26 05:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main grain business has achieved significant revenue growth and improved profitability, with a 2024 revenue of 4.46 billion yuan, up 19.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 390 million yuan, up 68.9% year-on-year [4][8] - The company is focusing on building its own brand and expanding its domestic market while accelerating overseas market development [7][8] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the pet food segment generated revenue of 3.132 billion yuan, up 4.92% year-on-year, while the pet staple food segment saw revenue of 1.107 billion yuan, up 91.85% year-on-year [5] - Domestic revenue reached 1.414 billion yuan, up 30.26% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 3.051 billion yuan, up 14.62% year-on-year [5] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 28.16%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin staple food products [6] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 9.33%, up 1.54 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [6] Financial Forecasts - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 461 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 16.94% year-on-year, and 569 million yuan in 2026, with a growth of 23.59% year-on-year [8][10] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 5.398 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 20.91% [10] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35x for 2025, 28x for 2026, and 23x for 2027 [8] - The report indicates a projected return on equity (ROE) of 16.19% for 2025, increasing to 17.38% by 2027 [12]