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中国平安(601318):NBV超预期增长35%,利率上行及平安健康并表阶段性影响利润表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9][11]. Core Insights - The company's new business value (NBV) exceeded expectations with a growth of 35% year-on-year, driven by individual insurance and bancassurance channels [6][7]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 27.016 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.4% year-on-year, primarily impacted by fluctuations in the fair value of bonds and the consolidation of Ping An Health [6][9]. - The operating profit showed a stable performance with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% to 37.907 billion yuan [6]. Financial Performance Summary - As of March 31, 2025, the company's net asset per share was 51.61 yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 89.84% [3]. - The total share capital was 18.21 billion shares, with 10.763 billion shares circulating in A-shares and 7.448 billion in H-shares [3]. - The company's investment assets grew by 3.3% year-to-date to 5.92 trillion yuan, with a net investment return of 0.9% and a comprehensive investment return of 1.3% [8]. Business Segment Analysis - The individual insurance segment's NBV grew by 11.5% year-on-year, despite a 19.5% decline in new single premiums [7]. - The bancassurance channel saw a significant increase in NBV by 170.8% year-on-year, benefiting from a low base and increased industry concentration [7]. - The property and casualty insurance segment reported a premium income growth of 7.7% year-on-year, with a combined ratio (COR) improvement to 96.6% [8]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to 127.279 billion yuan, 140.233 billion yuan, and 162.904 billion yuan respectively [9][10]. - The report indicates that the company's closing price corresponds to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) of 0.62x for 2025 [9].