GWMOTOR(601633) 东吴证券·2025-04-27 05:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Great Wall Motors is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Great Wall Motors is facing short-term pressure on performance due to product cycle fluctuations, despite ongoing globalization efforts [1] - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 40.019 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% quarter-on-quarter and 33.2% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.751 billion yuan, down 45.7% quarter-on-quarter and 22.7% year-on-year [1] - The report notes that the decline in net profit is primarily due to product cycle fluctuations leading to decreased quarterly sales, increased sales expenses, and delays in new car certifications affecting tax refunds in Russia [1] - Great Wall Motors' Q1 gross margin was 17.84%, with sales expenses rising to 2.296 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase due to accelerated investments in direct sales and new model launches [1] - The report emphasizes the growth of the Wey brand and ongoing international expansion, with total wholesale sales of 256,800 units in Q1, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [1] - The company plans to launch multiple new models in 2025, enhancing its product matrix across various brands [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 219.515 billion yuan, 237.623 billion yuan, and 253.828 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.57%, 8.25%, and 6.82% [1] - Net profit forecasts for the same years have been revised to 12.270 billion yuan, 13.854 billion yuan, and 14.366 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 3.33% in 2025, followed by increases in subsequent years [1] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 173.212 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.12% [1] - The diluted EPS for 2025 is estimated at 1.43 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 18.44 [1] - The report indicates that the company’s sales and R&D investments are increasing, which has led to a downward adjustment in profit expectations [1]