PING AN OF CHINA(601318) 浙商证券·2025-04-27 08:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company's net profit for Q1 2025 was 27.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%, primarily due to short-term investment fluctuations and one-time losses from the consolidation of Ping An Health [1] - The operating profit was 37.907 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with a weighted average ROE (non-annualized) of 2.9%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance reached 12.891 billion yuan, with a comparable year-on-year growth of 34.9%, exceeding expectations [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Life Insurance - The NBV for life insurance in Q1 2025 grew by 34.9% year-on-year, driven by an unexpected increase in the new business value rate, despite a 19.5% decline in new single premiums [2] - The new business value rate (based on first-year premiums) increased by 11.4 percentage points to 28.3%, benefiting from product structure optimization and a reduction in the preset interest rate [2] - The agent channel showed stable growth, while bank insurance and community finance channels experienced significant increases in NBV, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 170.8%, and 171.3% respectively [2] - The number of agents at the end of Q1 2025 was 338,000, a decrease of 6.9% from the beginning of the year, but productivity per agent improved with a year-on-year increase of 14% in NBV per agent [2] - The outlook for the year suggests steady growth in NBV, supported by improved agent productivity and the activation of diverse channels [2] 2. Property and Casualty Insurance - The original premium income for property and casualty insurance was 85.138 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [3] - The comprehensive cost ratio improved significantly to 96.6%, down 3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a reduction in major disasters and lower claims expenses [3] - Premiums from auto insurance and non-auto insurance reached 53.735 billion yuan and 31.403 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.7% and 15.1% respectively [3] - The expectation for the year is stable premium growth and continued improvement in business quality and cost ratios [3] 3. Investment Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, the investment scale of insurance funds exceeded 5.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.3% from the beginning of the year [4] - The net investment yield (non-annualized) was 0.9%, unchanged year-on-year, while the comprehensive investment yield (non-annualized) improved by 0.2 percentage points to 1.3% [4] - The balance of real estate investments was 206.615 billion yuan, accounting for 3.5% of the total, with a significant portion being stable income-generating property investments [4] - The fair value measurement assets in the investment portfolio showed a book loss of 21.802 billion yuan, impacting the company's net profit [4] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is advancing a dual strategy of "comprehensive finance + medical and elderly care" driven by technology, enhancing its core competitiveness [5] - The forecasted year-on-year growth rates for net profit from 2025 to 2027 are -8%, 13.3%, and 10.4% respectively [5] - The target price is set at 71.41 yuan per share, corresponding to a 2025 PEV of 0.88 times, maintaining the "Buy" rating [5]