Quechen Company(605183) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-27 10:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved record high production and sales in Q4 2024, exceeding expectations, while Q1 2025 showed seasonal impacts with slower growth [1][5] - The company is confident in its future growth, as evidenced by its stock incentive plan, targeting a compound annual growth rate of 15% in non-net profit over the next three years [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 2,197 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.4% - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 541 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.1% - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.32 yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 33.9% [2][6] Market Data - As of April 25, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 16.24 yuan, with a market capitalization of 6,754 million [3] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 and a dividend yield of 2.16% [3] Company Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a record high in silica production and sales, driven by adjustments in customer structure and stable raw material costs [5] - The company’s silica production volume reached approximately 362,600 tons in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.75% [5] - The company’s gross margin improved to 33.95% in 2024, up 4.51 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a net profit margin of 24.6% [5] Future Outlook - The company is expanding its product offerings, including biomass-based silica products, which have gained traction in international markets [5] - The company plans to complete the construction of its silica microsphere project by the end of 2025, further diversifying its product portfolio [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are approximately 599 million, 660 million, and 721 million respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of about 11, 10, and 9 [5][6]