Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [7][22]. Core Views - The company continues to face operational pressure, but is focusing on new product growth to drive recovery. Despite a slight decline in revenue for 2024, there is a positive outlook for 2025 as the company aims to enhance product structure and optimize channel efficiency [7][8]. - The company reported total revenue of 1.87 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, and a net profit of 0.08 billion yuan, down 37.7% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 1.5% to 0.47 billion yuan, but net profit decreased by 38.0% [7][8]. Financial Summary - 2024 Financial Performance: - Total revenue: 1,868 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: -1.7% - Net profit: 84 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: -37.7% - Gross margin: 23.7% [7][8]. - 2025 Financial Projections: - Total revenue expected to reach 1,942 million yuan, with a growth rate of 4.0% - Net profit projected at 104 million yuan, with a growth rate of 23.7% - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at 1.07 yuan [7][11]. - Long-term Projections: - Revenue expected to grow to 2,137 million yuan in 2026 and 2,357 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 124 million yuan and 144 million yuan [7][11]. Product and Market Insights - The core product lines are under pressure, with specific categories showing varied performance: fried products down 11.9%, baked goods down 4.3%, steamed products up 5.4%, and dishes up 21.8% [7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its frozen prepared dishes and baked goods segments, with significant investment in production resources and R&D to meet customer demand [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 31 for 2024, decreasing to 25 in 2025, and further to 21 in 2026, indicating a positive trend in valuation as earnings improve [7][11]. - The target price is set at 28.9 yuan, corresponding to a P/E of 27 for 2025 [7][8].
千味央厨（001215）：2024年报及2025年一季报点评：经营压力延续，发力新品增长