Fuanna(002327) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-28 14:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is positioned for long-term healthy development despite short-term adjustments, and it remains a high-quality dividend benchmark [1] - The retail environment has negatively impacted short-term performance, but there is potential for recovery as consumer demand improves [5] - The company has a strong cash position, allowing for sustained high dividend payouts [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 30.11 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 5.42 billion yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year [7] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 5.36 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 17.8% year-on-year, and net profit is projected at 560 million yuan, down 54.1% year-on-year [6][8] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue and profit, with estimates of 5.0 billion yuan for 2025, 5.4 billion yuan for 2026, and 5.8 billion yuan for 2027 [7] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.62 yuan per share for 2024, with a total cash dividend amounting to 520 million yuan, resulting in a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 96% [7] - The dividend yield based on the closing price on April 25 is reported at 7.4% [7] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has shown resilience in offline sales, while online sales have contracted, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [7] - The total number of stores at the end of 2024 was 1,472, with a net closure of 22 stores, suggesting potential for future expansion in favorable market conditions [7] Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12 for 2024, with projections of 13 for 2025 and 12 for 2026 and 2027 [6][14] - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 7.8 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the market value as of April 28 [7]