CMS(600999) 东吴证券·2025-04-28 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a revenue of 4.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.31 billion yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year [7] - The brokerage business revenue significantly increased by 49.0% year-on-year, accounting for 42.5% of total revenue, driven by a rise in market trading activity [7] - Investment banking revenue has declined, with a 112.0% year-on-year increase in total investment banking revenue, but a 57.5% decrease in equity underwriting scale [7] - Asset management revenue rose by 42.9% year-on-year, indicating a strong performance in this segment [7] - The company's self-operated investment income decreased by 26.2% year-on-year due to a high base in the previous year [7] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 12.3 billion, 13.1 billion, and 14.0 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 18%, 7%, and 7% respectively [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 19.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.13% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 8.76 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.57% year-on-year increase [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected at 0.94 yuan for 2023, with a P/E ratio of 19.33 [1] Business Segments - Brokerage business revenue is projected to reach 6.18 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 7.23 billion yuan in 2025 [17] - Investment banking revenue is expected to be 0.86 billion yuan in 2024, slightly decreasing in subsequent years [17] - Asset management revenue is forecasted to grow from 0.72 billion yuan in 2024 to 0.78 billion yuan in 2025 [17] Market Position - The company holds a market share of 5.2% in margin financing, with a total margin balance of 100.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 24% increase since the beginning of the year [7] - The company ranks 8th in the industry for equity underwriting and 13th for bond underwriting, indicating a competitive position despite recent declines [7]