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双林股份(300100):2024年报点评:主业强劲复苏,人形机器人业务蓄势待发

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][20]. Core Insights - The company's main business is experiencing a strong recovery, and its humanoid robot business is poised for significant growth. The automotive parts segment has solidified its advantages, with a notable increase in profitability. The company has strategically positioned itself in the humanoid robot core components market, achieving domestic substitution and reducing production costs [2][7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 49.10 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.64%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 4.97 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 514.49% [7][8]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 55.78 billion yuan, 65.52 billion yuan, and 78.73 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 13.6%, 17.5%, and 20.2% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 5.34 billion yuan in 2025, 6.17 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.67 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 7.4%, 15.7%, and 24.3% respectively [3][8]. Business Segment Analysis - The automotive parts business has strengthened its position, with key products like seat horizontal actuators being supplied to major automakers such as BYD and Changan. The company has also made significant advancements in electric drive systems for popular models [7][8]. - The humanoid robot screw business is expected to open a second growth curve, with the company achieving domestic production of key components and establishing a trial production line for 12,000 sets by the end of 2024 [7][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is capitalizing on domestic substitution opportunities and accelerating its global layout, with new subsidiaries established in Thailand and Singapore to enhance supply chain responsiveness and cost advantages [7][8]. - The report highlights the company's strategic moves, including the divestiture of loss-making businesses and the optimization of its cost structure, which has led to improved operating cash flow [7][8].