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大参林(603233):25Q1归母净利润增长15%,25年或有望迎来盈利改善拐点
603233DSL(603233) 信达证券·2025-04-29 07:32

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the analysis suggests a potential improvement in profitability in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for investors [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 26.497 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.01%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 21.58% to 915 million yuan [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.956 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, with a notable net profit growth of 15.45% to 460 million yuan [1][2]. - The company is experiencing a decline in gross margin, which fell by 1.58 percentage points to 34.33% in 2024, while the retail business gross margin decreased by 1.53 percentage points to 36.62% [2]. - The company is expected to see a turning point in profitability in 2025, driven by the closure of unprofitable stores and improvements in customer traffic due to ongoing initiatives [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company generated total revenue of 26.497 billion yuan, with a breakdown showing significant contributions from various regions and product categories [2]. - The company’s retail business revenue was 21.921 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.88%, while franchise and distribution revenue reached 3.94 billion yuan, up 15.12% [2]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 28.938 billion yuan, 31.788 billion yuan, and 35.149 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of approximately 9%, 10%, and 11% respectively [5]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to recover to 1.099 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 20.1% [5]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 34.3% for the next few years, with a slight decline anticipated [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.96 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.31 yuan by 2027 [4][5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong presence in the South China region, with 10,064 stores, and is expanding its footprint in other regions [2]. - The ongoing strategy includes closing loss-making stores and enhancing store profitability through improved customer traffic management [2][3].