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万辰集团(300972):Q1业绩超预期,行业进入净利率上升通道

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 10.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.0%, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, up 3344.1% year-on-year [7] - The snack wholesale business continues to show strong growth, with Q1 revenue of 10.688 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.6% [7] - The net profit margin for the snack wholesale business significantly improved, reaching 3.85% in Q1, up from previous quarters [7] - The report anticipates continued growth for the company, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 944 million, 1.257 billion, and 1.608 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 221.68%, 33.18%, and 27.85% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023 is 9.294 billion yuan, with significant growth expected in subsequent years, reaching 49.460 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 944 million yuan in 2025, with an EPS of 5.25 yuan [1] - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 69.23 in 2024 to 21.52 in 2025, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [1] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 13.46% by 2025, with a net profit margin of 1.91% [8]