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双汇发展(000895):2025Q1肉制品销量承压,养殖明显减亏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 14.295 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.137 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend rate, with a projected cash dividend corresponding to a yield of 5% for 2024 [7] - The company is a leading player in the meat products industry, possessing strong competitive advantages and low valuation [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 60.663 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.6% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.040 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.45 yuan for 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 [6] Sales and Profitability Insights - In Q1 2025, the meat products segment generated revenue of 5.584 billion yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year, with sales volume of 312,000 tons, a decrease of 17.4% [7] - The average selling price for meat products was 17.9 yuan per kilogram, a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year [7] - The slaughtering segment achieved revenue of 7.002 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with external transaction revenue growing by 10.75% [7] Other Business Segments - The other business segments reported external transaction revenue of 2.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.8%, with a significant reduction in losses in the breeding segment [7]