山西汾酒（600809）：25Q1经销商稳定增长，盈利端表现平稳

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 360.11 billion yuan and net profit of 122.43 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.79% and 17.29% respectively [1] - For 2025, the company is projected to generate revenue of 165.23 billion yuan and net profit of 66.48 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 7.72% and 6.15% respectively [1] - The company has seen a significant increase in high-priced liquor sales, with liquor revenue reaching 358.75 billion yuan in 2024, up 13% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin improved by 0.93 percentage points to 76.30% in 2024, with sales volume and price per ton increasing by 7.20% and 5.43% respectively [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow at rates of 8%, 9%, and 9% from 2025 to 2027, reaching 390 billion yuan, 425 billion yuan, and 463 billion yuan respectively [2] - The net profit is expected to grow by 6%, 9%, and 10% during the same period, reaching 130 billion yuan, 141 billion yuan, and 155 billion yuan respectively [2] - The company’s EBITDA is projected to increase from 16,891.10 million yuan in 2024 to 21,046.21 million yuan by 2027 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 10.04 yuan in 2024 to 12.71 yuan in 2027 [3] Market and Sales Insights - The company’s sales in the domestic market for 2025 are expected to be 60.83 billion yuan, while sales outside the province are projected at 103.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 8.7% and 7.18% respectively [1] - The number of distributors increased by 743 to a total of 4,461, although the average scale per distributor decreased by 7.88% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 is forecasted to be 78.80%, with a net profit margin of 40.23% [1]