XfmGroup(603225) 德邦证券·2025-05-12 10:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 67.09 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year [6]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its production capacity, with plans to add two new polyester filament production lines in 2025, which will support ongoing revenue growth [7][9]. - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in production capacity growth, with the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) expected to decrease from 7.1% (2017-2023) to 1.5% (2024-2026) [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 17.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, and a net profit of 355 million yuan, up 77.9% year-on-year [6]. - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 14.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and a net profit of 306 million yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year [6]. - The company’s polyester filament production capacity reached 8.05 million tons by the end of 2024, with a market share exceeding 12% [6][7]. Production and Sales Insights - In 2024, the company’s sales volumes for POY, FDY, and DTY were 5.25 million tons, 1.5 million tons, and 810 thousand tons, representing year-on-year increases of 13.4%, 5.5%, and 5.6% respectively [6]. - The average market prices for POY, FDY, and DTY in 2024 were 7,457 yuan, 8,019 yuan, and 8,901 yuan per ton, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [6]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.415 billion yuan, 1.860 billion yuan, and 2.160 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 28.6%, 31.5%, and 16.1% [9]. - The overall profitability is expected to improve, with gross margins projected to increase from 5.6% in 2024 to 6.6% by 2027 [10].