HLGF(600346) 光大证券·2024-03-11 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 12.74 RMB [3] Core Views - The company plans to distribute over 50% of its 2023 net profit as dividends, continuing its high dividend policy [2] - The company has established a fully integrated industrial chain from crude oil to chemical new materials, positioning itself as a leader in the industry [2] - The company's upstream "big chemical" platform and downstream new materials layout are expected to drive future growth [2] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 240,202 million RMB in 2023E to 280,576 million RMB in 2025E, with a CAGR of 8.07% [1] - Net profit is expected to increase from 6,915 million RMB in 2023E to 9,213 million RMB in 2025E, with a CAGR of 15.5% [1] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.98 RMB in 2023E to 1.31 RMB in 2025E [1] - The P/E ratio is expected to decline from 13 in 2023E to 10 in 2025E, indicating potential undervaluation [1] Industry and Company Analysis - The company operates a 20 million tons/year refining and chemical integration project, 5 million tons/year modern coal chemical equipment, and 16.6 million tons/year PTA production capacity [2] - The company is expanding into high-value-added new materials, including differentiated fibers, functional films, engineering plastics, and biodegradable materials [2] - The company's integrated industrial chain and strategic positioning in the chemical industry are expected to support sustained growth [2] Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is 89.678 billion RMB, with a total share capital of 7.039 billion shares [1] - The stock price has ranged between 11.11 RMB and 17.79 RMB over the past year [1] - The 3-month turnover rate is 12.74% [1] Profitability and Efficiency - ROE is expected to improve from 11.55% in 2023E to 12.78% in 2025E [1] - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 9% from 2023E to 2025E [5] - EBITDA margin is forecasted to be 8.4% in 2023E, increasing slightly to 8.6% in 2024E [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/B ratio is expected to decline from 1.5 in 2023E to 1.2 in 2025E [1] - EV/EBITDA is projected to decrease from 11.4 in 2023E to 9.8 in 2025E [5] - The dividend yield is forecasted to increase from 2.7% in 2023E to 3.6% in 2025E [5]