CRRC(601766) 广发证券·2024-03-12 16:00Investment Rating - Buy rating for A shares (7.16 CNY target price) and H shares (5.20 HKD target price) [2] Core Views - Significant breakthrough in Level 5 maintenance orders, with CRRC's high-level maintenance contracts exceeding 23 billion CNY in 2023 [2] - High-level maintenance business entering rapid growth phase, with projected CAGR of 21.5% for 2024-2027 [2] - Maintenance revenue expected to maintain over 10% average growth rate even with potential reduction in maintenance share [3] Financial Projections - Projected net profit attributable to parent company: 12.1/13.7/15.3 billion CNY for 2023-2025 [3] - Estimated revenue growth: 4.8%/10.3%/11.0% for 2023-2025 [5] - EBITDA projected to reach 21.9/24.2/26.2 billion CNY for 2023-2025 [5] Railway Investment Trends - Railway fixed asset investment reached 62.5 billion CNY in Jan-Feb 2024, up 9.5% YoY [6] - Annual investment expected to reach 800-850 billion CNY, with focus shifting to equipment maintenance and renewal [6] Maintenance Business Analysis - Level 5 maintenance requires 100% factory return, benefiting CRRC significantly [2] - Projected Level 5 maintenance units: 191/284/341/443 for 2024-2027 [2] - Estimated annual high-level maintenance orders: 21.0/25.8/30.0/37.7 billion CNY for 2024-2027 [2] Market Dynamics - First batch of EMUs purchased during 2008-2015 high-speed rail construction boom entering high-level maintenance phase [8] - Level 5 maintenance accounts for over 50% of 360 EMU high-level maintenance tenders in January 2024 [7]