Lier Chemical (002258) 光大证券·2024-03-25 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next 6-12 months with expected investment returns leading the market benchmark by 15% or more [5][9] Core Viewpoints - The company's performance in 2023 was under pressure due to a significant decline in glufosinate-ammonium prices, which fell by 63.7% year-on-year to an average of CNY 82,500 per ton [10] - Despite the challenges, the company is actively advancing the construction of L-glufosinate-ammonium production capacity and expanding its overseas market presence, with registrations completed in 5 countries [10] - The company's revenue in 2023 decreased by 22.6% year-on-year to CNY 7.851 billion, while net profit attributable to the parent company dropped by 66.7% to CNY 604 million [10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was CNY 7.851 billion, a decrease of 22.6% compared to 2022, with a projected recovery to CNY 9.616 billion by 2026 [2][10] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was CNY 604 million, down 66.7% year-on-year, with forecasts of CNY 729 million, CNY 819 million, and CNY 945 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][10] - EPS for 2023 was CNY 0.75, with projections of CNY 0.91, CNY 1.02, and CNY 1.18 for the next three years [2][10] Operational Highlights - The company's gross margin for its core products, including raw materials and formulations, declined significantly in 2023, with raw material gross margin dropping by 8.6 percentage points to 26.3% and formulation gross margin falling by 12.2 percentage points to 20.2% [10] - The company is optimizing production processes at its Mianyang and Guang'an bases to reduce costs and improve efficiency, while also expanding its L-glufosinate-ammonium production capacity [10] - The company's subsidiary, Lier Bio, completed the construction of a 20,000-ton/year enzymatic L-glufosinate-ammonium project in 2023, and another 10,000-ton/year project is expected to be completed in 2024 [10] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio for 2023 was 12, with projections of 10, 9, and 8 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][10] - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 1.0 in 2023 to 0.7 by 2026, reflecting a gradual improvement in valuation [2][10] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 7.6 in 2023 to 4.5 by 2026, indicating improving operational efficiency and profitability [10]