经济观察网利尔化学（002258）控股股东计划协议转让部分股份，可能导致控制权变更；荆州基地氰化 钠项目仍处前期筹备阶段；公司持续推进精草铵膦海外市场布局。 公司状况 根据机构调研信息，近期股权激励计划尚处于讨论阶段，暂无具体安排，后续进展需关注公告。 业务进展情况 利尔化学在多次调研中强调，作为国内最大精草铵膦原药生产商，将持续推进精草铵膦在海外多国的登 记和市场推广工作，以把握需求增长机遇。同时，湖南津市基地的2万吨/年酶法精草铵膦项目已投产， 运行正常。 行业政策与环境 出口退税政策调整后，草铵膦市场订单和价格可能出现波动，公司指出产品价格受供需、竞争等多因素 影响。此外，公司支持行业反"内卷"倡议，致力于推动可持续发展。 高管变动 根据证券之星的报道，公司控股股东久远集团计划通过公开征集受让方协议转让部分股份，可能导致控 制权变更，但该事项尚需国有资产监督管理部门等机构批准，是否启动及最终结果存在不确定性。这一 进展在机构调研中也得到确认。 公司项目推进 公司表示，荆州基地的氰化钠项目仍处于前期筹备阶段，具体实施需待公司董事会审议决定。该项目未 来审批结果可能影响公司产能布局。 以上内容基于公开资料整 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][8]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with contract prices rising due to increased demand and limited domestic production [1][5]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining ore grades and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [2][3][7]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticides, including glyphosate, is anticipated to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the pesticide industry [4][7]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - Potassium fertilizer prices are recovering due to strong demand, with domestic production expected to decrease by 2.7% to 5.5 million tons in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a record high of 12.633 million tons, up 9.1% year-on-year [1][25]. - As of January 2026, the average market price for potassium chloride was 3,295 CNY/ton, reflecting a 27.52% increase year-on-year [1][41]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Yara International, with projected potassium chloride production of 2.8 million tons in 2025 and 4 million tons in 2026 [5][8]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is characterized by tight supply, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 CNY/ton for over two years [2][50]. - As of January 30, 2026, the price for 30% grade phosphate rock was 1,040 CNY/ton in Hubei and 970 CNY/ton in Yunnan, stable compared to the previous month [2][50]. - Companies with clear expansion plans such as Chuanheng Co., Yuntianhua, and Xingfa Group are recommended for investment [7]. Pesticides - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to increase production costs for pesticide companies, leading to a potential rise in prices for glyphosate and other products [4][7]. - The production of glyphosate in China is projected to grow significantly from 18,300 tons in 2020 to 120,400 tons by 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 45.78% [4][7]. - Recommended companies in the pesticide sector include Lier Chemical and Liming Chemical, which are expected to benefit from price increases and improved margins [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][8]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with contract prices rising due to increased demand and limited domestic production [1][5]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining ore grades and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [2][3]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticides, including glyphosate, is anticipated to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the industry [4][5]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - Potassium fertilizer prices are recovering due to strong demand, with domestic production expected to decrease slightly in 2024 while imports reach a historical high [1][25]. - As of January 2026, the average market price for potassium chloride was 3,295 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.52% [1][41]. - Key companies recommended include Yara International, with projected potassium chloride production of 280 million tons in 2025 and 400 million tons in 2026 [5][8]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is characterized by tight supply, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at around 1,040 CNY/ton in Hubei [2][50]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate is driving the growth of phosphate rock consumption, with significant price increases observed in related products [2][3]. - Recommended companies include Chuanheng Co., which has clear expansion plans, and Yuntianhua, a leading player in the phosphate chemical sector [5][7]. Pesticides - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to increase production costs for pesticide companies, leading to a potential rise in prices for glyphosate and other products [4][5]. - The market for glyphosate is projected to grow significantly, with production expected to increase from 18,300 tons in 2020 to 120,400 tons by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 45.78% [4][5]. - Companies recommended in this sector include Lier Chemical and Liming Chemical, which are well-positioned to benefit from the changing market dynamics [5][7].

据悉，利尔化学主要从事氯代吡啶类、有机磷类等高效、低毒、低残留的安全农药原药的研发、生产和 销售。公司产品包括除草剂、杀菌剂、杀虫剂三大系列共40余种原药、100余种制剂以及2-甲基吡啶等 部分化工中间体。 中化新网讯 近日，利尔化学发布2025年度业绩快报称，公司2025年预计营业收入90.08亿元，比上年增 长23.21%；预计实现利润总额6.94亿元，比上年增长102.59%；预计实现归母净利润4.79亿元，比上年 增长122.33%。 利尔化学表示，2025年，虽然依旧面临激烈市场竞争，但受益于公司部分产品需求增长，综合毛利率有 所上涨以及降本增效所取得的成效，带动公司业绩上涨。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The chemical industry is expected to experience a significant decline in new supply in 2026 and 2027, leading to an upward cycle due to price synergy effects and the exit of overseas capacity [1][2] - The tightening of national carbon emission targets will impact the approval of oil and infrastructure projects, pushing chemical companies towards green transformation [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - Major chemical companies have made substantial fixed asset investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which are expected to translate into profits in the coming years, with some companies potentially having P/E ratios as low as 3-4 times [1][5] - The PX market is operating at high capacity utilization, with expected profits around 1,000 CNY/ton being sustainable due to the rapid digestion of new capacity [1][9] - The olefin market is projected to improve long-term, supported by national policies, with an expected upward cycle from 2027 to 2029 [1][11] Company-Specific Insights Wanhua Chemical - Fixed assets and construction projects have significantly increased, with potential profits at the bottom of the cycle estimated at 15-16 billion CNY, and central profit levels reaching around 30 billion CNY [3][20] - The company’s market cap corresponds to a P/E ratio of 8-9 times, indicating substantial profit potential as the cycle rebounds [20] Longbai Group - Fixed assets have grown significantly, with potential profits estimated at 12 billion CNY based on historical averages [21][22] - The company’s market cap corresponds to a P/E ratio of around 9 times, suggesting a favorable valuation [22] Rongsheng Petrochemical - Fixed asset investments have been significantly higher than those of Hengli Petrochemical, with potential peak profits estimated between 20 billion to 30 billion CNY [23][24] - Future profitability will depend on the market conditions for ethylene and its downstream products [24] Hengli Petrochemical - The company is seen as stable and a key indicator of product reversals, with significant overseas expansion potential [14][13] - Expected profits could reach 60-70 billion CNY if current favorable conditions persist [13] Shenghong Petrochemical - The company has not fully benefited from industry conditions but has significant upside potential, with expected profits from new energy sectors [12] Other Important Insights - The chemical industry is currently characterized by a shorter duration from the bottom of the down cycle to the upturn, aided by price synergy effects and high industry concentration [4] - The large refining industry is at the tail end of its capacity cycle, with cash flow expected to improve significantly [8] - The agricultural chemicals sector faces oversupply issues, with key signals from agricultural product prices [28] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The oil market is expected to improve in the second half of 2026, with prices potentially fluctuating between 70-80 USD per barrel [15][16] - OPEC is likely to maintain production levels, indicating a slow growth cycle for oil supply, which could stabilize prices [17] - The refrigerant market is expected to see price increases, although the rate of increase may slow down [33][34] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the chemical industry's dynamics, company-specific insights, and broader market trends.

Group 1 - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a significant decline of 6.88% on February 2, with Hongda Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] - Key stocks in the agricultural chemical sector saw substantial losses, with Hongda Co. down 10.02% to 14.63, and Zhongnong United down 10.01% to 18.52 [1] Group 2 - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 2.269 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors had a net inflow of 2.299 billion yuan [1] - Individual stock fund flows showed varied results, with Guangxin Co. experiencing a net outflow of 40.09 million yuan from main funds [2] - Longqing Co. had a net inflow of 4.18 million yuan from main funds, while Jinzhen Co. saw a net outflow of 3.77 million yuan from retail investors [2]

2026年2月2日，利尔化学（sz002258）触及跌停，跌停价16.02元，涨幅-10%，总市值128.23亿元，流通 市值128.02亿元，截止发稿，总成交额7.31亿元。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 根据喜娜AI异动分析，利尔化学跌停原因可能如下，控股股东变更+行业竞争+股东减持： 1、公司自身 存在不确定性：利尔化学23.5%股份拟协议转让，可能导致控制权变更，这会带来战略不确定性。同 时，持股8.74%的股东计划减持3%股份，可能被市场解读为负面信号，影响投资者信心。 2、行业竞争 压力大：农药行业竞争激烈，主要大宗农药产品价格底部盘整，行业整体压力较大。草铵膦价格也低位 徘徊，虽需求增长，但低价可 ...

Core Insights - The performance of A-share listed companies for 2025 is showing a "polarization" trend, with significant differences in industry prosperity affecting earnings, where some companies achieve substantial profit growth while others, particularly in real estate and photovoltaic sectors, face losses [2][10] Group 1: Earnings Reports - As of January 30, over 70 companies have disclosed their 2025 annual reports, with more than 2200 companies providing earnings forecasts, indicating a clearer market outlook [2][7] - Among the companies that have reported, 51 achieved year-on-year revenue growth, highlighting the resilience of profit growth [3][6] - The top three companies in revenue growth are Shouyao Holdings, Lier Technology, and Xiamen Tungsten, with revenue increases of approximately 120%, 82.97%, and 47.84% respectively [4][5] Group 2: Profit Growth - A total of 47 companies reported year-on-year growth in net profit, with Wohua Pharmaceutical and Lier Chemical showing particularly strong performance, with net profit increases of 162.93% and 122.33% respectively [6] - Wohua Pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 0.817 billion with a net profit of 0.096 billion, while Lier Chemical reported a revenue of 9.008 billion and a net profit of 0.479 billion [6] Group 3: Earnings Forecasts - Approximately 900 out of 2200 companies that disclosed earnings forecasts are expected to see profit increases, indicating strong growth momentum in the A-share market [7][10] - Notably, over 60 companies anticipate net profit growth exceeding 500%, with 20 companies expecting over 1000% growth, showcasing robust development potential [7][10] - Ningbo Fubang stands out with an expected net profit increase of 3099.59% to 4379.43%, driven by rising silver prices and asset optimization [8][9] Group 4: Loss Predictions - A significant number of companies, particularly in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors, are expected to report losses, with major firms like China Fortune Land Development and Greenland Holdings forecasting losses of 16 billion to 24 billion and 16 billion to 19 billion respectively [10] - The photovoltaic sector is also heavily impacted, with companies like Tongwei and TCL Zhonghuan predicting losses of 9 billion to 10 billion and 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion respectively [10]

利尔化学股份有限公司 证券代码：002258 证券简称：利尔化学 编号：2026-01 | 投 资 | 者 关 | 系 活 | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 动类别 | | | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | | | □现场参观 □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参 与 | 单 位 | 名 称 | 东方证券：万里扬 天风证券：唐婕 | | 及人员姓名 | | | 鹏扬基金：梁君岳 华泰资产：王曦炜 | | | | | 富国基金：黄彦东 川发基金：汪鹭 | | | | | 农银汇理基金：汤砚卿 东方财富证券：汪智谦 | | | | | 昆仑磐升私募：李佳馨 国海证券：杨丽蓉 | | | | | 国寿养老：刘哲铭、张加发、冯昱祺 | | 时间 | | | 2026 年 1 月 30 日 | | 地点 | | | 公司会议室 | | 上 市 | 公 司 | 接 待 | 副总经理/董事会秘书：刘军 | | 人员姓名 | | | 董事会办公室：刘妤 | | | | | 1、公司 2025 年度业绩较好 ...

证券日报网讯 1月29日，利尔化学（002258）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司的股东名册及人 数是通过中登公司获得，而公司并不能随意获取每一日的股东数据，当然公司会按照深交所规定，定期 披露公司股东情况。 ...