PAB(000001) 国泰君安·2024-04-21 09:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Bank with a target price of 13.50 CNY per share [3][5]. Core Views - The revenue growth for Q1 2024 met expectations, while profit growth slightly exceeded expectations. Asset quality remained stable. The bank is undergoing a retail transformation, with a slowdown in overall growth but steady progress in corporate banking [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 10.30% to 147.73 billion CNY, with net profit expected to grow by 2.5% to 47.62 billion CNY. The EPS for 2024 is estimated at 2.31 CNY [4][8]. - The net interest margin decreased to 2.01%, down 10 basis points from the previous quarter, contributing to a 21.7% decline in net interest income year-on-year [4][8]. - The bank's total assets grew by 2.5% year-to-date, with corporate loans increasing by 12.8% and retail loans decreasing by 5% [4][8]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for corporate loans rose to 0.66%, while retail loans increased to 1.41%. The NPL generation rate decreased by 52 basis points to 2.44% [4][8]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio remains robust at 288% [8]. Profitability Metrics - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 10.71% in 2024, while the return on assets (ROA) is expected to be 0.83% [4][8]. - The bank's cost-to-income ratio is anticipated to improve to 26.90% by 2025 [8]. Market Position - Ping An Bank's market capitalization is approximately 207.45 billion CNY, with a current share price of 10.69 CNY [5][8]. - The bank's stock has a 52-week price range of 9.03 to 13.32 CNY [5]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to continue facing challenges in revenue growth due to ongoing retail transformation efforts, but corporate banking is showing resilience [4][8]. - The projected EPS growth for 2025 and 2026 is 2.44 CNY and 2.65 CNY, respectively, indicating a gradual recovery [4][8].