wanhua(600309) 国泰君安·2024-04-23 00:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company, with a target price raised to 104.09 from the previous 95.27 [3][7]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations, with a projected EPS of 6.27, 7.52, and 8.50 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 46.161 billion (up 10.07% YoY), gross profit of 8.137 billion (up 10.68% YoY), and net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.157 billion (up 2.57% YoY) [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased production capacity and stable pricing, particularly in the polyurethane sector, with a total production of 3.22 million tons (up 18% YoY) and sales of 3.14 million tons (up 19% YoY) in Q1 [7]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial performance shows a steady increase in revenue, with projections of 200.603 billion for 2024, 240.367 billion for 2025, and 270.444 billion for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 14%, 20%, and 13% respectively [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 19.683 billion in 2024, 23.595 billion in 2025, and 26.684 billion in 2026, indicating a growth of 17% and 20% in the following years [8]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase in operating profit margin and return on equity over the forecast period [8]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, including a 400,000 tons/year MDI expansion project in Fujian and ongoing projects in petrochemicals and new materials [7]. - The high capacity utilization rate and the expected increase in global demand for MDI are anticipated to drive sales growth [7]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a 10% increase over the past month and a 23% increase over the past three months, although it has decreased by 9% over the past year [5]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at 271.745 billion, with a 52-week price range of 67.70 to 97.76 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a PE ratio of 16.61 for 2024, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [7][11]. - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to be 19.1% in 2024, reflecting strong profitability [8].