23年业绩稳健增长，口岸免税恢复可期

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating for China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) to "Recommended" due to weak short-term performance influenced by overall consumption recovery and challenges in offshore duty-free sales [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a robust revenue growth of 24.08% in 2023, with total revenue reaching 67.54 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.71 billion yuan, marking a 33.46% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a decline in revenue by 9.45% to 18.81 billion yuan, but net profit remained relatively stable, increasing by 0.25% to 2.31 billion yuan [2][3]. - The recovery of the outbound tourism market and the continuous growth of offshore duty-free sales are expected to support future revenue growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the offshore duty-free segment remained the largest revenue contributor, with sales amounting to 43.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.25% [2]. - The overall gross margin improved by 3.43 percentage points to 31.82%, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin duty-free sales [2][3]. - The company’s market share in Hainan is estimated at approximately 70%, maintaining its position as the industry leader [2]. Market Dynamics - The number of inbound and outbound travelers in China reached 424 million in 2023, a significant increase of 266.5% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in travel activity [2]. - The report highlights that the duty-free sales at ports are gradually recovering, with Shanghai Duty Free achieving a revenue of 17.82 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company introduced 177 new domestic and international brands in Hainan in 2023 and is actively expanding its channel construction, including new duty-free stores in international airports [3]. - The ongoing development of the Sanya International Duty Free City and Haikou International Duty Free City projects is expected to enhance the company's market presence [3]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 7.90 billion yuan, 9.48 billion yuan, and 10.73 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.82 yuan, 4.58 yuan, and 5.18 yuan [7][8].