2023年报&2024一季报点评：洞藏引领，弹性可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 80.00 CNY, maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [1][2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company has benefited from the volume increase of its cave-aged liquor series and internal structural upgrades, leading to record-high profit margins. The revenue for 2023 is expected to meet forecasts, with a net profit of 2.288 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain high profitability with projected EPS of 3.64 CNY for 2024, 4.55 CNY for 2025, and 5.66 CNY for 2026, supported by a 22X PE valuation for 2024 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.720 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 22%. The net profit is expected to reach 2.288 billion CNY, reflecting a 34.2% increase [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2024 shows a revenue of 2.325 billion CNY, up 21.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 913 million CNY, marking a 30.4% increase [1][2]. Market Position - The high-end liquor segment's revenue is expected to account for 78.4% of total sales, with cave-aged liquor contributing approximately 50% to total revenue [1][2]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the high-end liquor market, with positive feedback from core markets and a strong inventory and pricing environment [1][2]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the cave-aged liquor segment, with a stable performance expected in 2024. The company plans to enhance brand and channel management, aiming for further structural upgrades [1][2]. - The financial metrics indicate a robust outlook, with operating profit margins projected to reach 45.2% in 2024 and net asset return rates expected to improve to 29.4% [1][2].